Sports Betting Portfolio Management
By: Matt Elliott
The subject of financial investment is such a wide and varied area. We all know (or should know), that investing surplus funds is a sound idea; nothing new there. If you make the decision to invest, what investment options do you have?
1. Property – unit, house, holiday house, commercial property, a managed property investment fund etc.
2. Shares – stock options, different stock investment sectors such as small capitalisation mining companies, international or local share funds etc.
3. Fixed Interest – bonds, convertible notes, fixed deposits etc
The above are your major investments categories in which you may be looking to invest.
These are the ‘traditional’ type of investments however there are other investment areas which are just as, or more profitable than your main ‘stable’ of investment options. These alternative investment options include tree crops, vintage cars, wines, art, other collectables and also sports betting and horse racing!
As the majority of people do not understand the betting industry, they generally scoff at the idea of sports/horse race betting as a legitimate investment option. That is because they have only been exposed to one side of the business, the entertainment side. Of course gambling is generally painted in an ordinary light in the media where it is linked to family break downs and suicides. The perception among those who haven’t been enlightened is that if you bet often, you must have a gambling problem!
“If the truth be known many who play the stockmarket are the biggest gamblers around.”
They are never labelled gamblers, nor do they believe that they are gambling because their gambling vehicle is not horses but shares in companies. They like to think of their random and uneducated decisions as being an ‘investment’ rather than a bet. In this light, it is OK to lose money because ‘it is an investment’. Many are simply betting on the price of a share just the same as an uneducated sports bettor who makes a decision on the likely outcome of a game.
The purpose of this article is to show that gambling can be a serious and profitable business as well as a fun pastime. I decided to write this article after speaking with a good mate of mine who happens to be financial advisor to ‘high net worth’ clients. You may be surprised and interested to note that he sees sports betting as playing a very important role in his investment portfolio. He knows very little about sports but he sees it as a very serious business and he follows our selections ‘to the letter’. (Not that he would tell his clients that he invests in sport as I am sure they just wouldn’t ‘get it’.)
The similarities between the more ‘traditional’ type investments and gambling are many. We are all playing the same game, which is to . . .
beat the market and optimize our total wealth.
Financial markets such as the stockmarket are generally efficient and represent the general view of the aggregate of those that invest into the market. Investing in any financial market (including the sports betting market) raises financial questions involving decision making under uncertainty. Many of those that play such markets simply do not understand just what they are up against.
People go to financial advisors for advice on how to best invest their money. They are thought to be the experts. They have been to University and have completed courses through the Australian Securities Institute to become an advisor. It is the same with other specialised services, such as doctors and solicitors. People recognise the specialised knowledge that these guys have and understand the value of paying such experts for their opinions.
I believe the reason to why more aren’t successful in gambling is that the majority of punters have no idea what they are up against. They believe that they can beat the game with no specific specialised knowledge. There is a price you have to pay to gain the knowledge and experience required to become successful.
This is very similar for both traditional investment advisors and also in the gambling field. Some advisors are better than others, as are some investments and some investment funds are better than others. Some investment funds make excellent returns for their clients however, on the other hand, the majority can’t even beat the average based on the returns of the ‘All Ords’ index!
I can see myself starting to get off track here.
Professional gambling is not for everyone, however I truly believe that it is within reach of everyone. Now there are two ways in which you can make a living out of gambling.
1. You can spend years studying mathematics and learn the ins and the outs of your chosen betting field to hopefully build the skills necessary to make consistent profits
2. You can pay those that have trodden the path above for their specialised knowledge and skill and then focus your attention on becoming an astute gambling portfolio manager.
Both methods will provide very similar betting results. Gambling is like any other profession. You simply cannot become successful without truly applying yourself and spending the time (and the money), to learn and become proficient. (Contrary to what most ‘retail’ punters would suggest). It is no different to a financial advisor who studies commerce at university and then completes a Diploma of Financial Markets at the Securities Institute. They have paid the necessary price (both in time and money), to obtain the required information to pursue a career in their chosen field of endeavour.
The thing with sports/horse racing is that punters expect wealth and success to come to them while they are doing nothing to improve their skills. I believe this is largely due to the fact that they do not understand what they are up against and how tough it is for your average casual punter these days to turn a profit.
Anyway, back to the purpose of this article. It is well and truly possible for anyone to become a successful and highly profitable gambler.
As we saw above, there are two choices that you could make. One requires years of study to develop the required specialised knowledge to allow you to become successful; the second option can be thought of as being the easier path.
Just as you may well pay a financial advisor for their advice, you have the option to pay an expert in gambling for their betting advice. Doing so will leave you as purely a manager of your investments.
If you have ever been to a financial advisor, you will realise that they love their pie charts and love to talk about diversification and asset allocation. They split your total investment wealth up into different areas with the aim of reducing risk.
Well consider doing something similar with gambling. There are a number of excellent sports/racing services which show high returns and have been showing high returns for a good period. You may like to build a portfolio of gambling investment options based around the good services. How you allocate your resources for the different services you may use is up to you. For example your gambling portfolio may comprise of two horse racing approaches, two tennis approaches, one AFL, one NRL and one Super12’s for example.
After sourcing your betting information from a service, you have the task of managing your portfolio to maximise the rate of growth of your bank and to minimise your risk. For those that take the time to look at the possibilities of sports betting investment, you can understand why it makes a lot of sense from an investment angle. You invest your money for a whole year in say the stockmarket hoping for a standard 10% return. You can make that on every single dollar that you outlay in some sports!
Investing in a conservative manner can easily see you double your original investment capital within one year. Returns unheard of in other ‘traditional’ methods of investment and yet contrary to what most believe it is unbelievably safe if you find a reliable source to purchase your advice from.
In sports betting you can use mathematics to calculate very accurately worst case scenarios and no, that is not generally a total loss of starting capital. We have a simulation program available on the website which you can access from the following link Punting Ace Simulation Program which will give you an excellent idea of what you can expect to achieve based on certain criteria.
We also have programs which will simulate your projected performance based on certain bankroll settings. To simulate a year of our tennis package, select the following link Punting Ace Tennis Simulation or to simulate a year of our AFL betting package, select the following link Punting Ace AFL Simulation.
If you are not happy “putting all your eggs in one basket”, why not consider sports betting as an “alternative investment” similar to tree crop investments or hedge funds. Any prudent financial planner will explain to you the benefits of diversifying across a number of different markets and investment products. Indeed, investment products such as options and instalment warrants (and to some extent margin lending), are designed to “enhance” your overall portfolio returns and as such, traditional investment advisers may allocate a “percentage” of your overall portfolio to these products.
With risk adjusted returns far in excess of “main stream” investment products, why wouldn’t you apply a percentage of your portfolio to sports betting? As your financial adviser will agree, sports betting is not correlated with any main stream investment markets, and indeed given the disappointing recent performance of the stock market (with the exception of last years return of approx 25%) the current investment markets are awash with products that are non-correlated to the stockmarket. For example, hedge funds, tree investments, caravan park property trusts and chicken farms (yes that last one is actually true). Therefore sports betting should at least be considered as part of a prudent “diversified” investment portfolio.
Sport Betting Investment Steps
1. Decide from day one that you have the discipline to follow your plan through and that you will operate in a business like fashion and will keep records and the like.
2. Find a reputable information provider for your selections. Remember the goal is for you to be only the portfolio manager. You don’t want to have to come up with the selections; leave that to those that have proven track records and are experts in their fields.
3. Decide on how you will divide up your total starting capital over the information provider(s)/sport(s) which you have gathered.
4. Now follow through with your plan setting aside time for constant reflection and self evaluation in an attempt to maximise your returns whilst minimising your risk.
Disclaimer – this article is not meant to be taken as offering financial advice. The author is not a qualified financial advisor and as such, cannot give such advice. We advise you to seek independent advice from a qualified advisor before committing any funds.
This article is protected by international Copyright © Elk Publications Pty Ltd February 2005 Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org if you wish to reproduce this article elsewhere.
Australians Matt Elliott and Jess Kirley of www.puntingace.com, have been investing together professionally on sports for over 3 years now. They take a very mathematical approach to their betting, and liken it more trading a commosity like stocks than actual gambling. They continue to lead the industry with innovative approaches to sports betting and their reputation among their peers is a testinmony to that.